[302] Election Day Alert
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[302] Election Day Alert

For weeks now, we have heard of the small number of undecideds or independents in the national electorate. That is misleading, because it assumes there are just three major positions on the 2020 electoral spectrum—Biden, Independent, and Trump.  There are really five—Hard Biden, Soft Biden, Independent, Soft Trump, and Hard Trump.  Here’s the punchline: Until the ballots are cast, legions in the two soft categories can move to the other candidate.  Hence, candidates are not simply trying to get the independent vote.  They are also trying to pry loose persuasible voters in the opponents’ soft camp. In short, there are more votes available for each candidate than the pundits suggest.

As for 2020, based on the “enthusiasm gap,” it is safe to say President Trump has a harder base than Biden.  Should this race shift in his direction, it may well be due to a movement out of the Soft Biden category toward the President. DC

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